Russian defenses in Ukraine are 'likely brittle' as they lack the reserves to relieve frontline troops, think tank says

Ukrainian army snipers near Bakhmut.

AP Photo/Libkos

• Russian defenses are "likely brittle" amid the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, the ISW said.
• The think tank noted that Russian forces likely lack the reserves to rotate frontline units.
• If Ukraine breaks through, Russia would have to rely on its "already degraded forces." 

Russian defenses in Ukraine are "likely brittle" amid the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to a think tank.

In an update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Institute for the Study of War said its analysis was supported by the recent dismissal of top Russian general Major General Ivan Popov, who said he was removed from his position after raising questions about mass Russian casualties from Ukrainian artillery and a lack of support for Russian forces.

Popov reportedly claimed that he had appealed to his superiors to rotate troops and relieve those who had fought on the frontlines for a long time.

The ISW said Popov's comments reinforced their previous assessments and indicated that rotations and reinforcements are needed to sustain Russian defenses in western Zaporizhzhia. It also noted that Russia's lack of reserve troops meant Popov's appeal was likely futile from the outset.

The think tank said that without any reserves to rotate in, Russian forces would have to rely on "already degraded forces" in the event of a Ukrainian breakthrough.

It added that the high rate of Russian casualties from artillery fire was likely a result of a Ukrainian effort to wear down Russian forces in the south of the country.

Ukrainian troops train with heavy weapons near the frontline in Zaporizhzhia on April 20, 2023.

Muhammed Enes Yildirim/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Ukraine launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive to take back territory occupied by Russia in early June, marking a critical juncture in the war.

So far, reports on the counteroffensive's success have been mixed, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitting that the efforts have been "slower than desired."

However, Ukraine appears to be making incremental gains, and it has made progress in Bakhmut and slow advances in Zaporizhzhia and eastern Donetsk, the BBC reported.

On Saturday, the commander of Ukrainian forces in the south, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, said his troops were "systematically moving the enemy out of their positions" in his latest update on the counteroffensive, per Sky News. 

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