REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
- Ukraine's nuclear power plants were a central part of Russia's plan to force Kyiv's capitulation.
- Moscow hoped to seize the plants and use them as leverage against Ukraine and Western countries.
- To pull that off, Russian spies began targeting power-plant workers months before the invasion.
Ukraine has one of the largest nuclear power plant systems in the world. So when Russia started planning its invasion, Ukraine's nuclear energy infrastructure was a top target.
The objective of the Russian intelligence services was to gain control of those plants and then use them as leverage against the Ukrainian government. As part of a broader effort to destabilize Ukrainian institutions, Russian spies began recruiting agents in Ukraine long before Russian troops crossed into Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Andriy Derkach, a former member of Ukraine's parliament and head of Energoatom, Ukraine's state nuclear company, had been working with the Russian intelligence services for at least six years before the full-scale invasion.
According to a recent report by the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, on Russia's unconventional operations in Ukraine before and during the war, Ukraine's intelligence agencies believe that "the main direction of Derkach's pro-Russian activities" in the years before 2022 was to influence Ukraine's nuclear energy industry "in the interests of Russia."
According to Ukraine's State Security Service, Derkach was being handled by Russia's military intelligence agency, known as the GRU, and receiving millions of dollars every month to facilitate the fall of Ukraine.
ANDREY BORODULIN/AFP via Getty Images
"Derkach is alleged to have been tasked with the establishment of a network of private security firms which would assist in maintaining control in a number of towns by pathfinding and assisting Russian forces upon their arrival," the RUSI report says.
According to the RUSI report, Ukraine's nuclear energy infrastructure "played a significant role" in Russia's invasion plan and in the Kremlin's public narratives about the conflict. Moscow accused Ukraine of having plans to use the plants to develop nuclear weapons and leaders in the Kremlin made plans to seize the plants as part of the invasion.
"To prepare for these operations, the Russian special services recruited employees of nuclear facilities, including from units responsible for the physical security of the facilities," the report says.
Russia's FSB, the main successor agency to the Soviet-era KGB, "was deeply involved in the planning and execution of the invasion," according to the report. FSB operatives may not have necessarily run agents in Ukraine directly, but either they or their agents in Ukraine likely tried to bribe, blackmail, or flatter personnel at the plants, as those are most common means by which people are recruited to spy.
To further complicate matters, it seems likely that reports about the limited success of the destabilization effort were distorted as they were relayed to the Kremlin or ignored once they got there. This resulted in Russian leaders having a poor understanding of the situation on the ground before the invasion.
Moscow's big plan
ANDREY BORODULIN/AFP via Getty Images
According to another RUSI report on the first five months of the war, Russia had big plans for Ukraine's nuclear power plants, intending to use them to advance its objectives in three ways.
First, Moscow planned to use the power plants as bases for troops and equipment so that Ukrainian forces couldn't target them out of fear of causing a nuclear disaster.
Second, the Kremlin wanted to take control of Ukraine's energy grid — 60% of Ukraine's electricity comes from nuclear power plants — in order to gain influence over country's population and economy.
Finally, Moscow wanted to leverage the nuclear sites to blackmail the US and European countries, using the threat of radiation and nuclear pollution to prevent them from getting involved, directly or indirectly, in support of Ukraine.
Overall, the Kremlin wanted to denuclearize Ukraine in the hopes of leaving the country weaker and more reliant on Russia. However, within the first few weeks of the conflict, it was clear that plan had failed.
Although Russian forces still control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, that has not won the Kremlin any leverage over Kyiv.
Indeed, instead of welcoming Russian forces with open arms, Ukrainians protested and fought back. More than 14 months later, it's ordinary Russian troops who are suffering because of this intelligence failure.
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. He is working toward a master's degree in strategy and cybersecurity at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies.
from Business Insider https://ift.tt/HslBG9b
No comments:
Post a Comment