McKinsey economists lay out 9 potential coronavirus recession scenarios — ranging from a summer recovery to a 'black swan of black swans' - Creak News

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McKinsey economists lay out 9 potential coronavirus recession scenarios — ranging from a summer recovery to a 'black swan of black swans'

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The downtown district of Washington, looking east to the U.S. Capitol, remains largely empty to try to limit the spread of COVID-19 during the coronavirus disease pandemic in Washington, U.S. April 7, 2020. REUTERS/Jonathan ErnstReuters

  • Uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus and its future course drove McKinsey partners to model nine economic outcomes for recovery.
  • The firm currently expects one of its four more optimistic scenarios to play out, with social distancing measures driving rapid containment of the outbreak and bringing national economies back online before the end of 2020.
  • A darker possibility — referred to by the firm as the "black swan of black swans" — would push total recovery past 2021 as new outbreaks, a wave of bankruptcies, and record joblessness leave nations mired in recession.
  • Failure to contain the virus would likely result in the US waiting for a viable vaccine and suffering through a long period of stifled economic output, the firm wrote.
  • Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.

Uncertainty around the coronavirus outbreak's trajectory remains the biggest obstacle for experts forecasting the US economy's trendline. So McKinsey partners detailed nine different scenarios for a post-pandemic nation.

Variables including the US's public health response, bankruptcy rates, job loss, and the government's policy response make for a wide range of possibilities, McKinsey said in the March report. Though it's human nature "to freeze, or to jump to a simple answer," the team looked to "bound the uncertainty with reason" and put forth a wide range of futures that will evolve alongside the pandemic.

See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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