A leading medical institution created a simulation that shows how a new disease could kill 900 million people — and it reveals how unprepared we are

Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

• The Clade X simulation, created by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, shows how vulnerable the world is to the spread of a pandemic virus.
• In that simulation, political experts from the US tried to figure out how to respond to the emergence of a new and deadly disease.
• Despite being a "moderately contagious" and "moderately lethal" virus, at the end of the day — 20 months in simulated time — the virus would have killed 150 million people.
• According to the scenario's creator, if efforts to create a vaccine continued to fail, a disease like that could kill 900 million, or more than 10% of the global population.

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The committee to advise the President first met approximately one month after the virus first appeared.

There had been more than 400 cases and 50 deaths so far, mostly split between Frankfurt, Germany, and Caracas, Venezuela.

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